Abstract: Paper No. 171
Using Recurrence Probabilities to Estimate the Volume of Multifamily Mortgage Originations
Robert M. Dunsky, James R. Follain, and Jan Ondrich
November 1995
This study uses recurrence probabilities to generate forecasts of the
volume of multifamily mortgage originations for the period 1992-2002. The
approach concentrates on predicting the volume of property sales using the
baseline of a multifamily prepayment hazard estimation to generate the
predicted cohort-specific proportion of calendar sales in a given year.
The forecast for the volume of originations depends strongly on the
definition of the relevant mortgage population. A definition that excludes
assumptions but otherwise includes all properties selling between 1971 and
1991 in which a first mortgage was used in its acquisition yields a
forecast of $47.2 billion for 1997. A more restrictive definition that
approximates the pool of loans covered by HMDA leads to a forecast of
$23.5 billion for 1997.
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This paper may be viewed and printed using Adobe Acrobat Reader. To download a FREE copy of Adobe Acrobat Reader, click here.
Click here for the Adobe Acrobat version
of Metropolitan Studies Program Paper 172
Or
For more information on ordering a hard copy of this paper, please contact the Publications Officer, Center for Policy Research, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York 13244-1020 or e-mail our Publications Officer at puboff@maxwell.syr.edu. Each hard copy costs $5.00 (US) and payment should be included with mail order.
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